2010 Crop Production Declines

 

The latest USDA Crop Production Report, released on Jan. 12, indicates that the total U.S. corn and soybean crop in 2010 will decline from record production levels in 2009. The final average yield per acre in 2010 is also expected be lower than the record national corn and soybean yields of 2009. Following are some highlights of the latest USDA Crop Report, as well as the latest supply and demand (WADSE) reports.

 

Corn

According to the Jan. 12 report, the total U.S, corn production for 2010 is estimated at  12.4 billion bushels, a decline of 5% from the record 2009 total corn production of 13.1 billion bushels. The total U.S. corn production in recent years was 12.1 billion bushels in 2008, 13.0 billion bushels in 2007 and 10.5 billion bushels in 2006. The 88.2 million corn acres planted in 2010 compares to 86.4 million acres in 2009, and was the second highest on record in the U.S. since 1949, trailing only the 93.5 million acres of corn planted in 2007.

According to the USDA report, total corn stocks in the U.S. on Dec. 1, 2010, were projected at 10.0 billion bushels, which compares to 10.9 billion bushels on Dec. 1, 2009, and 10.1 billion bushels in 2008. The projected corn ending stocks for 2010-2011 are estimated at 745 million bushels, which is less than half of the corn carryover of 1.7 billion bushels for 2009-2010. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn use for 2010-2011 will be approximately 13.4 billion bushels of corn for livestock feed, ethanol, food products, seed, exports, etc., which is why the projected corn ending stocks have declined to very tight level that currently exists. The current corn stocks-to-use ratio is at 5.5%, which is the lowest since 1995-1996. The current estimated 2010-2011 U.S. corn carryover represents only about 20 days of total usage, compared to 50 days of total usage for 2009-2010.  USDA is now estimating the U.S on-farm corn price for 2010-2011 in a range of $4.90-5.70/bu., or an average price of $5.30, which is an increase of 10¢/bu. from December estimates. 

 

Soybeans

According to the Jan. 12 report, total U.S. soybean production in 2010 is expected to be the second highest on record at 3.33 billion bushels, just below the record production level of 3.36 billion bushels in 2009. The total U.S. soybean production in recent years was 2.97 billion bushels in 2008, 2.58 billion bushels in 2007 and 3.2 billion bushels in 2006. The total harvested soybean acreage in 2010 was a record of 76.6 million acres, up from the previous record of 76.4 million acres in 2009, and compared to 74.7 million acres in 2008.

The USDA report estimated total U.S. soybean stocks on Dec. 1, 2010, at 2.28 billion bushels, which is down 3% from 2.34 billion bushels on Dec. 1, 2009, and is comparable to the soybean stocks of 2.28 billion bushels on Dec. 1, 2008. The projected soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are estimated at 140 million bushels, which is down from the carryover levels of 151 million bushels in 2009-2010 and is comparable to the 138 million bushels of soybean ending stocks for 2008-2009. The current soybean stocks-to-use ratio is at the very low level of 4.4%, and the estimated 2010-2011 U.S. soybean carryover represents only about 15 days of total usage, compared to 28 days of total usage for 2009-2010. USDA is now estimating the U.S on-farm soybean price for 2010-2011 in a range of $11.20-12.20/bu., or an average price of $11.70, which is an increase of increase of 25¢/bu. from December estimates. 

 

2010 Crop Yields

The national average corn yield in 2010 is projected to be 152.8 bu./acre, a decrease of 7% from the record U.S. corn yield of 164.7 bu. in 2009. The 2010 U.S. corn yield compares to other recent average corn yields of 153.9 bu. in 2008, 150.7 bu. in 2007 and 149.1 bu. in 2006. The average corn yield in Minnesota in 2010 is estimated to be a new record yield at 177 bu./acre, which is slightly above the previous record yield of 174 bu. in 2009 and 2005. The projected 2010 Minnesota corn yield is well above other recent state average corn yields of 164 bu. in 2008, 146 bu. in 2007 and 161 bu. in 2006. Iowa had an estimated corn yield of 165 bu./acre in 2010, down considerably from an average yield of 182 bu. in 2009, and below the 171-bu. average yield in both 2008 and 2007. The average 2010 corn yields in other major production states were Nebraska at 166 bu., and both Illinois and Indiana at 157 bu.

The estimated U.S. average soybean yield in 2010 is the second highest on record at 43.5 bu./acre, trailing only the record 2009 U.S. soybean average yield of 44.0 bu. The projected 2010 average U.S. soybean yield is higher than other recent average soybean yields of 39.7 bu. in 2008, 41.7 bu. in 2007 and 42.9 bu. in 2006. The estimated average soybean yield in Minnesota for 2010 ties a record state yield of 45 bu., previously set in 2005. The 2010 soybean yield in Minnesota was well above recent soybean yields of 40.0 bu. in 2009, 38.0 bu. in 2008 and 42.5 bu. in 2007. The average soybean yield for 2010 in Iowa was estimated at 51.0 bu., which matched the 2009 average yield level. Estimated average 2010 soybean yields in other major production states were Nebraska at 52.5 bu., Illinois at 51.5 bu. and Indiana at 48.5 bu.

 

Editor’s note: Kent Thiesse is a former University of Minnesota Extension educator and now is Vice President of MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. You can contact him at 507-726-2137 or via e-mail at [email protected]

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