Are all the bearish cards out of the deck for soybeans?

Are all the bearish cards out of the deck for soybeans?

Soybean bears continue to think the slow planting pace of U.S. corn in the south and to the east will ultimately mean more soybean acres. The bears are also pointing to the fact the Argentine soybean harvest is now moving past 50% complete and the Brazilian harvest is almost 100% done. Meaning there is very little if any South American production risk left on the table. They are undoubtedly going to put another round of record production in the history books, while here at home we are going to undoubtedly plant a record number of acres.

My question is, how much of this is already factored into our current price. I'm not pointing out anything that everyone else in the trade hasn't known for the past several weeks. We've known the weather in South America was cooperating and that the U.S. producer was going to shift more acres to soybeans in order to help reduce expenses and curtail losses. The trade has also been talking loudly about U.S. ending stocks potentially moving north of 500 million bushels should we harvest another record crop. Keep in mind though, these are NOT surprises to the trade!

Bottom-line, I'm just not sure how much more bearish supply side data can be added to the trade? Demand remains strong and China continues to be a buyer. As a producer, I believe there is eventually going to be some type of upside opportunity. I am not wanting to be a seller on the breaks. From a spec perspective the sideline seems like the smartest play.      Get the daily Van Trump report...HERE...

Hide comments

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Publish