Soybean traders seem to be keeping a close eye on the macro markets, particularly the direction of the U.S. dollar and the direction of crude oil. Market insiders continue to believe a weaker dollar and gains in crude oil will continue to add strength in the soybean market.
On the flip side, if the U.S. dollar regions its upward momentum and crude oil falls under another round of heavy pressure, soybean price will more than likely post another leg lower. There's really little to talk about in regard to U.S. soy production. It's still early and the weather appears to be a non-event at this stage.
As for South America, most insiders believe the crop is looking larger than the USDA currently has estimated. Moral of the story...there is no story! Fundamentally, based on the supply and demand numbers there is nothing for the bulls to get excited about. If you start to stretch and look at the "macro markets" or some of the "geopolitical risk" associated with Argentina and Brazil, you can build a more bullish argument, but you have to ask what are the odds of any of these horses finishing in the money?
As a producer, I'm going to stay patient and hope one of these long-shots can gain some market momentum and help push prices back above $10. At that point, I'm going to look to reduce more new-crop risk. I would like to have 60% priced by the end of June.