December 2013 South American soybean update

December 2013 South American soybean update

I am hearing more soy acres have been going in the ground over in Argentina than what analyst in the area had originally anticipated. Yes, there are significant planting delays, but with planting being pushed so far back in many locations, more and more producers are being forced to switch some intended corn acres to soybeans. Currently, the USDA is estimating Argentine soy production at 53.5 million metric tons, while several sources inside the country are now thinking the crop will be more like 57-58 million metric tons (maybe even higher).  I am also hearing talk and plans from producers for more second crop soybean acres. In turn, several analyst are now starting to work their Brazilian production estimates higher. The USDA is currently estimating the Brazilian crop at 88 million metric tons, while several sources are pushing their estimates to between 90 and 92 million.  Hard to imagine, but many insiders are reporting 110-120 day beans look as if they will easily yield 100 plus bushels per acre.  Remember, we are probably just 30-45-days from seeing full-season beans coming out of the ground in Brazil.  Point I am tying to make is that "risk" could start coming off the table quicker than you might think...You need to have a plan in place, with good execution points and be ready to pull the trigger.  Click here to get all my daily comments....

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