I personally don't think we have seen the final chapter in the old-crop soybean story. Yes, new-crop supplies look to be somewhat burdensome, especially with world stocks projected to be at record levels. I think it is still too early to guarantee U.S. yields. We all know it will be the August (maybe even September) weather that will ultimately determine the fate of the U.S. crop.
As with corn, I believe best practice is to keep a floor in place, but be respectful to the "weather gods," keeping your upside potential open and recognizing this crop is still a long ways from being out of the field. Spec's should remain very cautiously bearish/neutral this market. As long as the old-crop story remains alive, this is a very dangerous market. Getting caught on the wrong side could prove to be extremely painful. Regardless of your bias I would take very small bites.
Don't forget: the USDA is in the process of resurveying soybean growers in 14 states. If the newly collected data justifies any changes in the soybean acreage, the updated estimates will be included in the August Crop Production Report, scheduled for release on Aug. 12. Just another wild card that needs to be considered. FWIW, I am personally looking for very little change in the current USDA soy acreage numbers (even after the survey).