Grain market viewpoint

Soybean bulls backpedal as prices give back recent gains

Soybean bears took a big swing at the market as prices have now fallen by almost -50 cents form this Mondays high.

There's a lot of talk inside the trade that the current record setting yield and total production estimate here in the U.S. could eventually end up working itself higher. I reported several weeks ago that while traveling out and around the country the soybean crop looked huge and extremely strong.

The USDA is reporting similar findings as their weekly crop-condition estimate remains the second best in history. Will the final yield push north of 50 bushels per acre like several insiders are now forecasting...who knows? There' also more evidence of the global soybean crop getting larger as the IGC is now estimating 325 MMT,s will be produced, up from 321 MMTs last month and 316 MMTs a year ago.

Keep in mind the USDA is currently forecasting 330.4 MMTs. The bears are also talking about Chinese demand slowing down a bit and import complications into China starting to hit the headlines. The bulls are starting to talk about more cases of "Sudden Death Syndrome" (SDS) starting to show up more regularly in fields across many important production areas. Bulls are also thinking the extreme winds and rains associated with the tropical storms and hurricanes brewing off the coast will eventually wreak havoc on U.S. weather and cause more widespread complications.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour ended with scouts reporting Iowa's pod count at 1224.28.

The Minnesota pod count was reported at 1107.60 vs. the 3-year average of 1006.73.   

GET THE DAILY VAN TRUMP REPORT HERE...

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