USDA adjusts corn, soybean ending stocks; prices react

USDA adjusts corn, soybean ending stocks; prices react

The USDA July supply and demand report has been released. Despite the USDA leaving yields unchanged, new-crop corn traded up to $4.49 and new-crop soybeans to $10.36 per bushel. As for now, I am staying patient in regard to reducing any additional new-crop risk. Below are some of the highlights from the July WASDE report.

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  • Corn Yield left "UNCHANGED" at 166.8 bushels per acre! 
    • Total U.S. new-crop production estimate lowered from 13.630 billion bushels down to 13.530 billion on planted acreage moving down from 89.2 million to 88.9 million and harvested acreage moving down from 81.7 million to 81.1 million. 
    • Old-crop U.S. ending stocks lowered from 1.876 billion down to 1.779.  
    • New-crop U.S. ending stocks lowered form 1.771 billion down to 1.599. 25 million bushel reduction feed and residual; 25 million bushel reduction inexpert; ethanol unchanged; food and seed raised higher by 25 million. 
    • Global ending stocks for new-crop lowered from 195.19 million metric tons down to 189.95.
    • Argentine production of 25.0 MMTs left unchanged.  
    • Brazil's production of 75 MMT's raised to 77 MMTs.
    • Chinese production of 228 MMTs raised to 229 MMTs. 
    • EU production lowered from 68.14 down to 65.77 MMTs.
  • Soybean Yield left "UNCHANGED" at 46.0 bushels per acre! 
    • Total U.S. production estimate raised form 3.850 billion bushels to 3.885 billion bushels on planted acres moving from 84.6 million to 85.1 million and harvested acres moving from 83.7 million up to 84.4 million. Obviously this could be reduced following the re-survey.  
    • Old-crop ending stocks lowered from 330 million down to 255 million. 
    • New-crop ending stocks lowered form 475 million down to 425 million. Domestic crush was raised higher by 10 million bushels; exports left unchanged; beginning stocks were lower by 75 million.  
    • Global ending stocks for new-crop lowered from 93.22 million metric tons 
    • Argentine production of 57 MMTs left unchanged. 
    • Brazil's production of 97 MMTs left unchanged.  
  • Wheat production for the U.S. raised from 2.121 billion bushels to 2.148 billion
    • Winter wheat production in the U.S. lowered from 1.505 billion down to 
    • U.S. ending stocks raised from 814 million bushels to 842 million.  
    • Global ending stocks for new-crop surprisingly raised from 202.40 million metric tons up to 219.81 million metric tons... a NEW record! 
    • Australian production of 26 MMTs left unchanged 
    • Canadian production lowered 29 MMTs down to 27.5 MMTs
    • Chinese production left unchanged at 130 MMTs.
    • EU produciton lowered from 150.68 down to 147.88 MMTs. 
    • Kazakhstan production raised from 12.5 to 13.5 MMTs.
    • Russian production raised from 55 to 57 MMTs.
    • Ukraine production raised from 23 to 24 MMTs.

GET THE DAILY VAN TRUMP REPORT!

US Production

 
USDA 7/10
Average
Range
USDA Prior
USDA 2014
Corn Prod.
13.530
13.414
13.14 - 13.6
13.630
14.216
Corn Yield
166.8
165.2
163 - 166.8
166.8
171.0
Soybeans Prod.
3.885
3.781
3.58 - 3.88
3.850
3.969
Soybean Yield
46.0
45.1
43.5 - 46.0
46.0
47.8

US 2014/15 Ending Stocks

 
USDA 7/10
USDA June
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn 
1.779
1.876
1.814
1.726 - 1.906
Soybeans
0.255
0.330
0.287
0.251 - 0.330

US 2015/16 Ending Stocks

 
USDA 7/10
USDA June
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn 
1.599
1.771
1.549
1.263 - 1.952
Soybeans
0.425
0.475
0.380
0.193 - 0.460
Wheat 
0.842
0.814
0.860
0.695 - 0.947

US Wheat Production

 
USDA 7/10
USDA June
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
All Winter
1.466
1.505
1.489
1.442 - 1.520
Hard Red Winter
0.866
0.887
0.891
0.873 - 0.910
Soft Red Winter
0.393
0.414
0.399
0.378 - 0.418
White Winter
0.196
0.204
0.199
0.190 -0.210
All Wheat
2.148
2.121
2.145
2.073 - 2.197

World 2014/15 Ending Stocks 

 
USDA 7/10
USDA June
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
193.95
197.01
195.09
188.0 - 197.5
Soybeans
81.68
83.70
82.93
81.2 - 84.3
Wheat 
212.06
200.41
200.29
195.4 - 203.0

World 2015/16 Ending Stocks 

 
USDA 7/10
USDA June
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
189.95
195.19
192.31
185.19 - 197.0
Soybeans
91.8
93.22
91.89
89.4 - 94.8
Wheat 
219.81
202.40
200.33
92.4 - 204.41
 
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