In most instances, record USDA crops get even bigger as the crop is being harvested; however the Nov. 10 USDA Crop Report lowered the expected 2014 expected U.S. corn production by 68 million from the October estimate. The Nov. 1 USDA estimate lowered corn yield estimates by 5 bushels per acre in Minnesota and by 2 bushels per acre in Iowa, as compared to the October estimate. The latest USDA estimates correlate very closely to actual corn yield reports from much of Minnesota and portions of northern Iowa. Based on November USDA report, USDA increased the expected total U.S. soybean production from the October projections.
The latest USDA report now estimates the total expected U.S. corn production for 2014 at record level of over 14.4 billion bushels. This compares to USDA corn production levels of 13.9 billion bushels in 2013, 10.8 billion bushels in 2012, and near 12.4 billion bushels in both 2010 and 2011. USDA is now estimating that the 2014 national average corn yield at 173.4 Bushels per acre, which is still a record yield, but is down 0.8 bushels from the October yield estimate of 174.2 bushels per acre. The 2014 corn yield estimate compares to recent U.S. corn yield levels of 158.8 bushels per acre in 2013, 122.3 bushels per acre in the drought year of 2012, 147.2 bushels per acre in 2011, 152.8 bushels per acre in 2010, and the previous record U.S. average corn yield of 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009.
The November 10 USDA Report estimated total 2014 U.S. soybean production at a record level of 3.96 billion bushels, which is an increase 31 million bushels above the October USDA projection. The 2014 soybean estimate compares U.S. soybean production levels of 3.36 billion bushels in 2013, 3.03 billion bushels in 2012, 3.09 billion bushels in 2011, and 3.33 billion bushels in 2010. USDA is now estimating the average 2014 U.S. soybean yield at a record level of 47.5 bushels per acre, which was a slight increase over the October estimate of 47.1 bushels per acre. The 2014 expected national average soybean yield compares to 44.0 bushels per acre in 2013, 39.6 bushels per acre in 2012, 41.9 bushels per acre in 2011, 43.5 bushels per acre in 2010, and the previous record U.S. soybean yield of 44.0 bushels per acre in 2009.
Based on the Nov. 10 report, USDA is estimating the 2014 corn yield in Minnesota at 165 bushels per acre, which was reduced from an estimate of 170 bushels per acre in October, but is still higher than the final 2013 Minnesota corn yield of 160 bushels per acre. The record Minnesota average corn yield was 177 bushels per acre in 2010. USDA is projecting Iowa to have a record corn yield of 183 bushels per acre in 2014, which well above the 2013 Iowa corn yield of 165 bushels per acre, and is slightly above the state record corn yield of 182 bushels per acre in 2008. Illinois is projected to have a record average corn yield of 200 bushels per acre in 2014, compared to 178 bushels per acre in 2013. Other estimates for 2014 average corn yields are Indiana at 186 bushels per acre, compared to 177 bushels in 2013, Nebraska at 181 bushels per acre, compared to 170 bushels per acre in 2013, and South Dakota at a record level of 151 bushels per acre, compared to 138 bushels per acre in 2013.
USDA is estimating the 2014 Minnesota soybean yield at 42 bushels per acre, which is the same as the 2013 soybean yield, but is below the state record soybean yield of 45 bushels per acre in 2010. The 2014 Iowa soybean yield is estimated at 52 bushels per acre, compared to 45.5 bushels per acre in 2013. Other projected state soybean yields for 2014 are Illinois at 56 bushels per acre, compared to 50.0 bushels per acre in 2013. Indiana at 54 bushels per acre, compared to 51.5 bushels per acre in 2013, Nebraska at 54 bushels per acre, compared to 53.5 bushels per acre in 2013, and South Dakota at 45 bushels per acre, compared to 40.5 bushels per acre in 2013.
USDA supply and demand
The monthly USDA WASDE Report released on Nov. 10 was slightly positive for corn market prices, but was bearish for soybean market prices in the coming months, but not as severe as some market analysts had projected prior to the report. The USDA report included the slightly lower corn production estimates for 2014, slightly higher increased demand for corn usage in the coming year, and a slight reduction in the expected corn carryover stocks. USDA is now estimating 2014-2015 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.01 billion bushels, which compares to 1.24 billion bushels for 2013-14, and 821 million bushels for 2012-13. The rather large projected 2014-2015 corn carryover stocks are likely to prevent any significant rallies in the corn market during the next few months. The next big factor for the corn market will likely be the anticipated planted corn acres for the 2015 growing season, along with any changes in estimated corn exports.
The estimated soybean ending stocks in the November report were estimated at 450 million bushels, which is unchanged from the October estimate, and compares to ending stocks of only 92 million bushels for 2013-2014, and 141 million bushels for 2012-2013. The projected 2014-2015 soybean ending stocks would be the highest level in several years. Despite the projections for a large increase in soybean ending stocks, soybean demand in the U.S. and abroad has remained quite strong, which could help provide for more stable soybean market prices in the coming months.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for 2014-2015 in a range of $3.20-3.80 per bushel, or an average of $3.50 per bushel, which is up 10¢ per bushel from the October estimated average price. USDA is projecting the U.S. average soybean price for 2014-2015 in a range of $9.00-11.00 per bushel, resulting in an average soybean price of $10.00 per bushel, which is the same as the October estimate. It is important to remember that the 2014-15 USDA price estimates are the expected average prices from Sept. 1, 2014 to Aug. 31, 2015, and are not estimated prices for the 2014 calendar year.
The projected USDA average on-farm corn price of $3.50 per bushel for 2014-15, compares to an average corn price of $4.46 per bushel for 2013-14, and $6.89 per bushel for 2012-13. The USDA soybean price estimate of $10.00 per bushel for 2014-15, compares to $13.00 per bushel for 2013-14, and $14.40 per bushel for 2012-13. The increasing supplies of both corn and soybeans are expected to keep grain price rallies at more moderate levels in the coming year, as compared to recent years.