USDA projects record 2014 crop production

The USDA Crop Production Report released Sept. 11 is projecting record U.S. production in 2014 for both corn and soybeans. Production levels for both crops were increased by about 3% in the latest USDA report, as compared to the August USDA report. USDA left the anticipated harvested acres for corn at 83.8 million acres, and for soybeans at 84.1 million acres, which are unchanged from the Aug. 1 estimate. The USDA Report is also estimating record national yield levels for both corn and soybeans in 2014, with increases from the August estimates, and significant increases compared to recent years. The increased corn and soybean yield expectations by USDA are due to very favorable weather conditions in the 2014 growing season in many of the prime corn and soybean production regions of the U.S. 

Based on the Sept. 11 report, 2014 corn production is estimated at a record level of 14.4 billion bushels, which compares to a 13.9 billion bushel corn production level in 2013. Total U.S. corn production was 10.8 billion bushels in the drought year of 2012, 12.3 billion bushels in 2011, and 12.5 billion bushels in 2010. The 2014 average U.S. corn yield is now estimated at a new record level of 171.7 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 4.3 bushels per acre from the August yield estimate. The 2014 projected national average corn yield would be well above recent U.S. corn yields of 158.8 bushels per acre in 2013, 123.4 bushels per acre in 2012, and 147.2 bushels per acre in 2011. The previous record U.S. average corn yield was 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009.

The report is now estimating total soybean production in 2014 at a record level of 3.91 billion bushels, which compares to a soybean production level of 3.15 billion bushels in 2013. Other recent U.S. soybean production levels were 3.01 billion bushels in 2012, 3.06 billion bushels in 2011, and 3.33 billion bushels in 2010. The average U.S. soybean yield for 2014 is now estimated at the record level of 46.6 bushels per acre, which is an increase from the August USDA estimate of 45.4 bushels per acre. The 2014 U.S. soybean yield estimate compares to 43.3 bushels per acre in 2013, 39.6 bushels per acre in 2012, and 41.5 bushels per acre in 2011. The previous record U.S. soybean yield was 44.0 bushels per acre in 2009. 

 

Projected carryover stocks

USDA also released the monthly World Supply Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADSE) on Sept. 11, which includes the latest estimates for 2014-2015 carryover stocks of corn, soybeans and other grains. USDA is now estimating 2014-2015 U.S. corn ending stocks at just over 2 billion bushels, which is an increase of nearly 200 million bushels from to the Aug. 1 carryover estimate. If the current WADSE projection is correct, U.S. corn stocks for 2014-2015 will be at the highest level since 2004-2005. The expected 2013-2014 final corn ending stocks are now estimated at 1.18 billion bushels, which compares to the final 2012-2013 corn carryover stocks of 821 million bushels. Based on current corn usage estimates, the estimated 2014-2015 ending stocks-to-use ratio for corn is 14.7%, which represents about 54 days of usage, and is at the highest level in recent years. The USDA marketing year runs from Sept. 1 to Aug. 31 each year. 

USDA is expecting 2014-2015 soybean carryover stocks to be 475 million bushels, which is an increase from the Aug. 1 estimate of 430 million bushels, and would be at the highest level since 2006-2007. The final 2013-2014 final soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, which compares to the final ending stocks of 141 million bushels in 2012-2013. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio for soybeans is 13.3 percent, or approximately 48 days of usage, based on current 2014-2015 soybean usages estimates. The latest WADSE estimates would result in projected 2014-2015 soybean ending stocks being at much higher levels heading into the 2015 growing season, as compared to recent years.

USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for the 2014-2015 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) in a range of $3.20-3.80 per bushel, or an average of $3.50 per bushel, which was a decrease of 40¢ per bushel from August estimates. The final U.S. average corn price is currently estimated at $4.45 per bushel for 2013-2014, compared to $6.89 per bushel for 2012-13, $6.22 per bushel for 2011-2012, and $5.18 per bushel for 2010-2011. The projected 2014-15 national average corn price is the lowest since the 2009-10 average price of $3.55 per bushel.  

USDA is projecting the U.S. average cash soybean price for 2014-2015 in a range of $9.00-11.00 per bushel, resulting in an average soybean price of $10 per bushel, which is a decrease of 35¢ per bushel from the August estimates. The final U.S. average soybean price for 2013-2014 is currently estimated at $13 per bushel, compared to $14.40 per bushel for 2012-13, $12.50 per bushel for 2011-12, and $11.30 per bushel for 2010-2011. The projected 2014-15 national average soybean price is the lowest since the 2009-10 average price of $9.59 per bushel. 

TAGS: Soybeans
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