USDA report recap, January 2015

As expected, the USDA Crop Production Report released on Jan. 12 indicates that both the total U.S. corn production and soybean production for 2014 were at record levels. The final 2014 national average yields per acre for both corn and soybeans were also at record levels. Following are some highlights of the recent USDA Crop Production Report, as well as the latest USDA Supply and Demand (WADSE) Report.

Corn

According to the January 12 report, the total U.S, corn production for 2014 is estimated at just over 14.21 billion bushels, an increase of 3% above the 2013 total corn production of nearly 13.84 billion bushels. The total U.S. corn production in other recent years was 10.75 billion bushels in 2012, 12.36 billion bushels in 2011, and 12.5 billion bushels in 2010. The 90.6 million corn acres planted in 2014, compares to 95.4 million acres in 2013, and 97.3 million acres in 2012, which was the highest on record in the U.S. since 1949. The total corn acres harvested for grain in 2014 was 83.1 million acres.

According to the Jan. 10 report, the projected corn ending stocks for 2014-15 are estimated at a level of nearly 1.88 billion bushels, which is above the 2013-14 estimated ending stocks of 1.63 billion bushels, and is well above the corn ending stocks of 821 million bushels in 2012-2013. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn use for 2014-2015 will be approximately 13.67 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, food products, seed, exports, etc., which is up significantly from 13.54 billion bushels in 2013-14, and significantly higher than total usage of 11.11 billion bushels in 2012-13. The current estimated corn “stocks-to-use” ratio for 2014-15 is at about 13.7 percent, which is up from 12.4 percent a year ago, but is a big increase from the corn “stocks-to-use” ratio of near 5% that existed only two years ago at this time.

USDA is projecting the 2014-15 market year average corn price in a range of $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel, resulting in an average of $3.65 per bushel, which would be the lowest in several years. This compares to 12-month market year average prices of $4.46 per bushel for 2013-14, $6.89 per bushel for 2012-13, and $6.22 per year bushel for 2011-12. The 12-month market year average price for the 2014 crop year will be calculated from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015. 

Soybeans

According to the Jan. 12 report, total U.S. soybean production for 2013 is estimated at nearly 3.97 billion bushels, which compares to 3.36 billion bushels in 2013, and 3.04 billion bushels in 2012. The total harvested soybean acreage in 2014 was at a record level of nearly 83.1 million acres, up from the 2013 level of 76.2 million acres. 

The USDA report is projecting soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 at 410 million bushels, which is up significantly from the carryover levels of 92 million bushels for 2013-2014, and 141 million bushels in 2012-2013. Total soybean usage for 2014-15 is estimated at 3.65 billion bushels, up slightly from 2013-14. The current soybean “stocks-to-use” ratio is now near 11.2%, which compares to under 5% in recent years. USDA is now estimating the U.S on-farm soybean price for 2013-14 in a range of $9.45-$10.95 per bushel, or an average price of $10.20 per bushel. This compares to an estimated average farm price of $13.00 per bushel for 2013-14 and $14.40 per bushel for 2012-13. 

 

2014 crop yields

The national average corn yield for 2014 is estimated at the record level of 171 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 2.4 bushels per acre from the previous USDA report, but represents a significant increase over the U.S. corn yield of 158.1 bushels per acre in 2013. The 2014 U.S. corn yield compares to other recent average corn yields of 123.1 in the drought year of 2012, 147.2 bushels per acre in 2011, 152.8 bushels per acre in 2010, and the previous record yield of 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009.

The average corn yield for Minnesota in 2013 is now estimated at 156 bushels per acre, which was a reduction of 9 bushels per acre from the previous USDA Report. The estimated 2014 state corn yield is down slightly from the 2013 average yield of 159 bushels per acre, is below the 2012 average yield of 165 bushels per acre, and is well below the state record corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2010. Iowa had an estimated record corn yield of 178 bushels per acre for 2014, which is up significantly from the 2013 average corn yield of 164 bushels per acre, and 137 bushels per acre in 2012, but is below the state record yield of 182 bushels per acre in 2009. The average 2014 corn yields in other major corn production States were Illinois at 200 bushels per acre, Indiana at 188 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 179 bushels per acre, and South Dakota at 148 bushels per acre. The 2014 corn yields in all major corn producing states, except Minnesota, were considerably above the 2013 and 2012 yield levels.

The U.S. average soybean yield in 2014 is estimated at the record level of 47.8 bushels per acre, which is well above the average soybean yields of 44 bushels per acre in 2013, 40 bushels per acre in 2012, and 41.9 bushels per acre in 2011. The estimated average soybean yield in Minnesota for 2014 was 42 bushels per acre, which is the same as the 2013 statewide yield level, but is down from the 2012 yield of 43.5 bushels per acre, and is below the State record soybean yield of 45 bushels per acre in 2010. The average soybean yield for 2014 in Iowa was estimated at 51.5 bushels per acre, which compares to 45.5 bushels per acre in 2013. The estimated average 2014 soybean yields in other major production States were Illinois at 56 bushels per acre, Indiana at 56 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 54 bushels per acre, and South Dakota at 45 bushels per acre, all of which were at or near record levels.

TAGS: Soybeans Corn
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