Will Fed's move support the corn market?

Will Fed's move support the corn market?

Corn is starting to move into an area where the technical guru's are looking at more stiff resistance. There's a lot of talk that it might take several runs to break-through the $3.95 to $4.05 area vs. the DEC15 contract. There's also talk that the funds have been covering some of their short positions in several markets as they try to lighten up the load ahead of the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next move on Thursday. Remember, there's a lot of uncertainty about how the U.S. dollar will respond to the Fed's next move.

The USDA elected to keep their weekly crop condition estimate at 68% good/excellent vs. 74% last year. Missouri's conditions were lowered by -2%; Kansas and Nebraska lowered by -1%; Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, North Dakota, and Wisconsin saw overall conditions improve by +1%. All other production states were left "unchanged". As for the overall "maturity" of the U.S. corn crop, the USDA bumped their estimate from 20% "mature" last week to 35% this week. That compares to our historical average of around 40% mature by this date.

Similarly, the U.S. harvest is also running a bit behind our traditional pace at 5% complete this year vs. 9% on average. As you can see from the graphic below, there's not one state that's running ahead of schedule. For those producers who have been eagerly waiting to reduce more risk or need to generate additional cash-flow prior to year-end, this might be the opportunity you've been looking for. Prices are up about 30¢ from the early-September lows and harvest is going to aggressively start gaining more momentum.  GET THE DAILY VAN TRUMP REPORT.

Hide comments

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Publish