Soybeans enjoyed another week of better-than-expected export sales. In its wake the trade continues to believe the USDA will soon be forced to raise their current export estimates by 25 to 50 million. Hopefully we see this take placein the upcoming December USDA report.
The bulls are thinking this helps pull the ending stocks number down closer to the 400 million mark. They then hope to see the USDA make some type of negative adjustment to harvested soybean acres and in turn pull ending stocks to a sub-400 million level, which could make the trade much more accepting and susceptible to bullish demand headlines and possible supply problems attached to minor weather hiccups
Bottom-line, as long as the ending-stock number is in excess of 400 million bushels its going to be tough to sustain an extended rally without the continuation of major bullish news. On the flip side, an ending stock number of around 350 million will make the trade much more nervous and jittery about any small issue. Psychological resistance is still around the $10.00 per bushel level vs. the nearby contract. More heavy "technical support" will occur down near the previous lows at $9.83^6.
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