Corn bulls continue to talk about the very real possibility for extreme weather during the upcoming U.S. season, and I'm hearing more weather gurus talk about the rapidly declining El Niño, and the disruptions that could follow in it's wake. There's more talk circulating about the potential for an extremely wet spring planting season here in the U.S. The numbers are also increasing for those who believe the water could shut off during the more critical summer months and ultimately put the U.S. crop directly in harm's way.
The theory is we've seen a lot of rain early in several key growing regions, so if the weather patterns do take a dramatic turn we could find ourselves without rainfall for an extended period.
There's also a lot more talk circulating about the conditions setting up for a potential early-harvest freeze. In other words, if we have heavy rains in the spring and corn planting is delayed significantly it could put a larger-than-normal percentage of the crop at risk if we were to experience an early freeze.
It's insanely early to be placing big bets on weather six-month down the road, but at the same time we have to respect the extremes we've seen the past 10 years.
As a producer I still see no reason to get in a major hurry in regard to reducing additional price risk down at these levels. Yes we have ample global supply and the bears continue to question demand, meaning prices could fall under more pressure nearby. But I truly believe at these levels the upside ultimately holds more potential than the downside risk. As a spec I continue to remain patient, looking to building longer-term bullish positions on a sub-$3.50 break in price.