The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report from the USDA increased the season-average corn farm price in the U.S. by 5¢ on each end of the range, and by 40¢ for soybeans. Ending stocks, however are down. Corn ending stocks are down 1.9 million tons, but expected to remain above the recent low in 2006-2007. Soybean ending stocks are down 15 million tons from last month, despite higher production in the U.S.
Beginning stocks for corn are projected 52 million bushels lower reflecting higher expected exports, corn use for sweeteners and starch and a small reduction in projected imports for 2009-2010. Corn production for 2010-2011 is forecast 120 million bushels higher. The survey-based yield forecast of 165 bu./acre is up 1.5 bu. from last month’s projection and 0.3 bu. above last year’s record.
Domestic corn use for 2010-2011 is raised 30 million bushels reflecting higher expected corn use for sweeteners and starch. Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher as tighter foreign supplies of wheat and coarse grains raise prospects for U.S. corn shipments. Despite higher production, ending stocks are projected down 61 million bushels at 1.3 billion, the lowest in four years. The season-average farm price is raised 5¢ on each end of the range to $3.50-4.10/bu. Similar price increases are projected for the other feed grains.
Global corn production is lowered 0.8 million tons with Russia and Ukraine each lowered 1.5 million tons and EU-27 lowered 1.0 million tons. These reductions more than offset higher production in the U.S.
Global coarse grain imports are raised this month with increases for corn in China, EU-27, South Korea and Israel, supporting higher expected corn feeding in each country. In EU-27, South Korea and Israel, corn is expected to replace higher priced wheat in feed rations. Barley feeding is also raised for EU-27 replacing wheat. By contrast, coarse grain feeding is lowered 3.7 million tons for Russia with wheat expected to partly replace barley, corn, oats and rye in livestock and poultry feeding. Offsetting reduced coarse grain exports from Ukraine and Russia are higher barley exports from EU-27 and Australia and higher corn exports from the U.S. Global coarse grain ending stocks are lowered 8.1 million tons with corn ending stocks down 1.9 million. Coarse grain and corn ending stocks are both expected to remain well above their recent lows in 2006/07.
Soybeans and Oilseeds
U.S. oilseed production for 2010/2011 is projected at 103.3 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month as higher soybean and cottonseed production are only partly offset by lower peanut production. Soybean yields are forecast at 44 bu./acre, 1.1 bu. above last month’s trend yield projection, and equal to last year’s record yield. The first survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is a record 3.4 billion bushels, 88 million above the July projection, and 74 million above last year’s crop.
Projected soybean exports are raised 65 million bushels to 1.435 billion. The sharp increase in exports reflects strong export sales, especially to China, stronger projected import demand for China, and reduced soybean stocks in South America at the beginning of the 2010-2011 marketing year. China soybean imports are raised to 49.5 and 52 million tons, respectively for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion reflecting a small increase in domestic soybean meal demand. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 360 million bushels, unchanged from July.
Soybean and product prices all increased this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010-2011 is projected at $8.50-10, up 40¢ on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $250-290/short ton, up $10 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 36.5-40.5¢/lb., up 2.5¢ on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010-2011 is projected at 439.7 million tons, down 1 million from last month. Higher global soybean production reflects the larger U.S. crop.
U.S. changes for 2009-2010 include increased soybean crush and exports and lower ending stocks. Crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.75 billion reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean exports are increased 10 million to a record 1.47 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels, down 15 million from last month. Soybean oil ending stocks are raised to 3.18 billion pounds reflecting sharply lower projected use for methyl ester production.