Soybean prices are momentarily stable, but I personally believe they will remain extremely volatile as we search for true valuation. Keep in mind, this market has dropped by about -$1.50 per bushel in just the past three weeks.
Similar to corn, there are heated debates in the market surrounding trade negotiations involving the Chinese. There are also debates surrounding the U.S. corp, specifically total average yield and how many soybean acres actually got planted. Several sources are now using a +50 bushel yield estimate as U.S. weather has been fairly cooperative early in the game. I'm hearing debates on both side of the fence regarding total planted acres.
The USDA reported in the March Intentions report, planted soybean acres for 2018 at 89.0 million acres, down -1% from last year. Planted acreage intentions this year compared to last were actually down or unchanged in 20 of the 31 estimating States. As I've been saying the past few weeks, it's all about Washington and weather.
Unfortunately for the bulls, the market is feeling "uncertainty" where it needs to feel "certainty" i.e. global trade, especially in regards to the worlds #1 buyer. On the flip side, U.S. weather is providing almost no "uncertainty". Hence, it's going to be tough to mount a sustained bullish rally nearby. Yes, there might be some bottom-pickers stepping in for a short-term trade, but I suspect buyers of any major size are wanting to see a little light at the end of the tunnel in regard to trade.
For all our sake, I hope that happens sooner rather than later. I personally just got jammed up having to price my remaining JUL18 bushels... timing could not have been any worse for escalating trade tensions. Wow, that was not the way I anticipated finishing out the old-crop bushels.
The part that makes me the most mad, is the fact I knew and even wrote that between May and November was going to be a wild and crazy ride in the soybean market. Again, just got a little too greedy with those finally few bushels. I had a $10.70 sale target in place for several weeks, since late-April, I even thought about pulling it on a couple of occasions and simply making sales at or around $10.50. Instead I'm eating final sales on a handful of remaining 2018 bushels down sub-$9.00. Ouch!