5.25 Van Trump

Global concerns still at forefront of soybean maket

The primary concerns are Chinese trade negotiations and U.S. weather.

Soybean bulls continue to talk about the possibility of improved U.S. / Chinese trade relations. Nobody seems to really know all of the specifics, but it certainly seems like U.S. agriculture and energy are going to be a couple of the beneficiaries.

There's also the continued talk of complications in South America. Not only does it seem like the Argentine crop is getting smaller but so is the crop in Uruguay. The soybean crop in Brazil is record large, but logistical issues along with the recent trucker strike has made access to supply a bit complicated.

Here at home, bulls continue to point towards the USDA underestimating crush demand and a possible increase in Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans, depending on how quickly a new trade deal is put in place. The trade is also eager to see what new ideas the Argentine government comes up with. There's talk they could be backpedaling on promises to further reduce their soybean export tariff.

As you can imagine, this doesn't seem to be going over real well with the farmers in Argentina. If this proves to be true, it could easily keep more Argentine soybeans out of the export market and discourage additional acres for next season. It's certainly worth keeping on the radar... Chinese trade negotiations and U.S. weather will also remain of primary concerns.

Technically, the new-crop NOV18 contract ran into stiff resistance on the charts up near $10.60 per bushel, which pressures the current nearby high. Old-crop resistance is in the $10.50 to $10.60 range vs. the JUL18 contract.   

 

 

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