soy11

Soybean contracts posting lower highs

The soybean market is still hinging on China trade negotiations and NAFTA.

Soybean bulls are keeping a close eye on Brazil, as oil workers have begun a 72-hour strike immediately following a crippling nationwide truck driver stroke. Several sources have reported that the strike has halted production at refineries in six states. As I mentioned yesterday, there's also talk that Argentina is now considering a nationwide strike as workers need significant raises to simply keep up with surging inflation.

Unfortunately, soybean prices here at home continue to post lower highs. The JUL18contracts $10.90 posted back in early-March seems to be strongly in place as the contracts nearby high. We tried to rally in mid-April, but only got back to $10.78 per bushel. The bulls tried again in late-April, but were only able to get back to $10.67. The market tried again in late-May, but only made it just above $10.50 per bushel.

From a technical perspective, it feels like every couple of weeks the bulls try to make another run towards the previous highs but are more quickly running out of momentum. On the downside, there have been two different occasions, once in early-April and once in mid-May that the market tumbled down to sub-$9.95 levels. The JUL18 contract is currently trading at around $10.25 per bushel. In other words, we are about +30 cents from the recent lows and about -65 cents from the early-March highs.

Obviously, a lot still hinges on the Chinese trade renegotiations and the inking of a new NAFTA deal? Beyond the macro space, U.S. weather will soon start to take on a much more prominent role in the headlines. As of right now the weather's really not a big concern, especially with many inside the trade thinking more U.S. acres have been planted than the USDA has given credit.

As a producer, I remain patient. Despite the recent setback in price, the new-cropNOV18 contract is still trading right around the same price I made my last cash sale, which was at $10.30. I wish I could say otherwise, but this also just happens to be my best new-crop cash sale. The NOV18 contract has recently traded to $10.60 on two separate occasions, but each time I have had orders resting at $10.70, just a bit out of reach and perhaps a bit too greedy. I'm hoping I get another shot by late-summer, which has always been my projected time target...

 

 

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