In case you missed the headlines, U.S. ending stocks pushed to a whopping 530 million bushels, as the USDA lowered U.S. export by 60 million bushels.
In South America, the USDA raised Brazilian production from 110 to 112 MMTs. At the same time, they lowered Argentine production from 56 to 54 MMTs. The trade obviously believes the Argentine production number is much lower, perhaps falling to around 50 MMTs. The USDA adjustments put the global soybean carryout at an extremely large 98.14 MMTs and the global stocks-to-use ratio remains at burdensome levels.
From a technical perspective, the nearby MAR18 contract is going to run into stiff resistance up between $9.95 and $10.05. The new-crop NOV18 contract looks like it could run into much heavier resistance up between $10.10 and $10.25 per bushel.
My next price target for new-crop is up near $10.30, I'm going to be watching very closely how the trade responds the next several sessions. If you remember, I had a resting order in the market at $10.25 vs. the NOV18 contract early last summer to price some estimated 2018 production. I tried to get cute, moved my price order as we were rallying and bumped the sale to $10.30. The market traded all the way up to $10.28^6 on July 12th then proceeded to tumble all the way down to $9.39 just a month later. I never got filled on that $10.30 order. If I would have just left the price order at $10.25 I would have been filled three cents from the highs. I haven't forgotten... and do not want to let another opportunity slip away. I'm paying extremely close attention!