Grain market viewpoint

Has the soybean market finally focused on fundamentals?

Chinese demand for soybeans has been strong but questions abound over future growth and how demand will shift to South America.

Soybean prices are flat to start the morning Friday but have fallen by more than -.60 cents from the most recent December 6th high of $10.71^2.

Technical gurus are curious if the market can hold psychological support at $10 per bushel or is $9.80 perhaps the more nearby level of support? Chinese demand has been good but there's lots of questions about future growth and how much of their demand will shift towards South America?

I remain extremely patient from this point forward, having secured all downside risk for any remaining old-crop bushels and having reached my goal of reducing 40% of my new-crop price risk. As a spec I am also staying extremely patient, believing there are easier opportunities in other asset classes. I see nothing in the soybean market that looks like a layup.

As we turn the page and look to 2017, I'm targeting the early-March time frame as a possible window for more extreme price volatility.

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