The USDA released the monthly WASDE report on May 9, estimating corn production up from the record 2013-14 year with higher corn yields offsetting reduced plantings. Average corn price is projected down to $3.85-$4.55. Soybean production is at record highs due to record yields and harvested area. Average price has dropped to $9.75-11.75.
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 403.3 million tons, up 2% from 2013/14 mostly on larger corn beginning stocks. Corn production is projected at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2013/14 record, with higher expected yields more than offsetting the year-to-year reduction in planted area. The corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up 6.5 bushels from 2013/14, based on a weather adjusted yield trend model and assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer weather.
Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 15.1 billion bushels, up 330 million from 2013/14. U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is projected 2% lower than in 2013/14. Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower with animal numbers down from 2013/14. Exports are projected 200 million bushels lower than this month’s higher projection for 2013/14 as larger expected foreign supplies and lower import demand limit U.S. shipments. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2014/15 is expected to be unchanged on the year with gasoline consumption expected to remain flat in 2015. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, up 580 million from the 2013/14 projection. With the larger carryout, the season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel, down from $4.50 to $4.80 per bushel for 2013/14.
U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 107.9 million tons, up 11% from 2013/14. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Soybean production is projected at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area. Yield is projected at a trend level of 45.2 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 2013. Supplies are projected at 3.78 billion bushels, up 7.4% from 2013/14 as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks and imports.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2014/15 is projected at 1.715 billion bushels, up 20 million from 2013/14 mainly reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption. Despite lower prices, soybean meal exports are projected up only slightly with Argentina soybean meal exports accounting for most of the gains in global soybean meal trade. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million from 2013/14 on record supplies and competitive prices. Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from 2013/14, increasing the stocks-to-use ratio to 9.6%. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel compared with $13.10 per bushel in 2013/14. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $355 to $395 per short ton, compared with $485 per ton for 2013/14. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 37 to 41 cents per pound compared with 40 cents for 2013/14.
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