USDA reports: Corn production, prices down; soybean production up, prices down

On Jan. 12, USDA the Annual Crop Production Report, as well as the monthly grain stocks and WASDE reports. Overall, corn production in 2015 is down from the 2014 estimate, and stored corn is up from December 2014. Soybean production was estimated slightly up from the 2014 estimate, and stored soybeans were up 7% from 2014. Projected prices are forecast down 5¢ and 10¢ for corn and soybeans, respectively.

Corn

Corn for grain production is estimated at 13.6 billion bushels, down slightly from the November forecast and down 4% from the 2014 estimate. The average yield in the United States is estimated at 168.4 bushels per acre. This is down 0.9 bushel from the November forecast and 2.6 bushels below the 2014 average yield of 171.0 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 80.7 million acres, up slightly from the November forecast but down 3% from the 2014 acreage.

Stocks

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2015 totaled 11.2 billion bushels, up slightly from December 1, 2014. Of the total stocks, 6.83 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 4 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 4.38 billion bushels, are up 6 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2015 indicated disappearance is 4.12 billion bushels, compared with 4.24 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Supply

Total projected corn use for 2015/16 is reduced slightly with lower projected food, seed, and industrial use and exports. Feed and residual use is unchanged as September-November disappearance, as indicated by the Dec. 1 stocks, was largely in line with expectations. Corn used to produce ethanol is unchanged, but projected use for sweeteners is lowered 10 million bushels. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and continued strong competition from South American suppliers. Corn ending stocks are projected 17 million bushels higher at 1.8 billion bushels, stocks remain the highest since 2005/06.

The projected range for the 2015/16 season-average corn farm price is lowered 5¢ on each end to $3.30-3.90 per bushel reflecting weakness in export demand and recent declines in cash and futures prices.

 

Soybeans

Soybean production in 2015 totaled a record 3.93 billion bushels, down 1% from the November forecast but up slightly from 2014. The average yield per acre is estimated at a record high 48.0 bushels, 0.3 bushel below the November forecast but 0.5 bushel above the 2014 yield. Harvested area is down less than 1% from last year's record acreage to 81.8 million acres.

Stocks

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2015 totaled 2.71 billion bushels, up 7% from Dec. 1, 2014. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.31 billion bushels, up 8% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.41 billion bushels, are up 7% from last December. Indicated disappearance for September-November 2015 totaled 1.41 billion bushels, down 6% from the same period a year earlier.

Supply

U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is estimated at 116.2 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month. Smaller crops for soybeans, canola, and cottonseed are only partly offset by increases for sunflowerseed and peanuts. Soybean production is estimated at 3,930 million bushels, down 51 million on lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is estimated at 81.8 million acres, down 0.6 million from the previous forecast. Yield is estimated at 48.0 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels, but still a record. With lower supplies, exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1,690 million. Ending stocks are projected at 440 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean meal production is reduced on a lower extraction rate. Soybean meal exports are reduced on a slowing pace of sales and increased competition from Argentina. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher extraction rate, increased imports, and increased domestic use.

The 2015/16 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is projected at $8.05-9.55 per bushel, down 10¢ at the midpoint based on prices reported to date. Soybean meal is forecast at $270-310 per short ton, down $20 on both ends. The soybean oil forecast is unchanged at 28.5 to 31.5¢ per pound.

View and download all Jan. 12, 2016 USDA reports.

TAGS: Soybeans Corn
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