soybeans

While bulls and bears battle, will fundamentals take over?

A disappointing NOPA crush report and weak export inspections has soybean traders talking.

Soybean bears are talking about weak export inspections and a somewhat disappointing monthly NOPA crush report. The data showed just over 153 million bushels crushed during March which compares to 156.69 million bushels crushed in March of 2016. Soyoil stocks were slightly higher than the trade was expecting at 1.815 billion pounds, this is the fourth month in a row soy oil stocks have moved high, but we're still lower than last years 1.858 billion pounds.

A positive out of the NOPA data was meal exports being over +1.0 million tons and the largest monthly total since 2013. Bottom-line however is "demand" seems to be non-event. The trade seems much more focused on the record crop being harvested in South America and the record acres set to be planted here in the U.S.

The bulls want to point towards weather complications and uncertainties surrounding too much moisture, but the bears say it's way too early to worry about soybean acres and early moisture may help to push more corn acres to soy. I should also point out the US Department of Commerce has announced they will be investigating dumping allegations towards Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel with a decision if the imports are hurting U.S. producers on May 8.

Remember Argentina is the world's #1 exporter of soyoil, used to make biodiesel. Indonesia is the world's #1 producer of palm oil. Technically the MAY17 contract continues to trade around $9.50 with nearby downside support thought to remain just below $9.30 per bushel. The new-crop NOV17 contract is looking at nearby resistance in the $9.75 to $9.80 range with downside support at or just below $9.50 per bushel.  

See all of my information here...

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