Corn bears continue to keep a stranglehold on the market. The funds are thought to be holding a massive short position and do not want to voluntarily release their grip. The bulls continue to point to production in South America currently being over-estimated. There's talk that Brazil's second-crop acres will be much lower than the USDA and the trade estimate. There's also talk that the Argentine crop is overstated, as dry conditions coupled with some heavy heat in a few areas could create pollination problems and reduce the top-end of the yield estimate.
Here at home, there's a little balance sheet battle taking place as the bulls talk about strong ethanol numbers and the bears point to disappointing exports. Feed numbers are also being heavily debated. It will be interesting to see how the USDA slices the demand pie in the yearend report on Friday.
My opinion: It doesn't really matter as we will continue to stay in what's deemed an "over-supplied" environment. With that being the case we need to see more drastic cuts in production. As a longer-term bull, I hope to see some reductions to the South American crop and early estimates for U.S. corn acres start to pull back a bit. I've already heard talk of perhaps more spring wheat acres replacing corn to the North.
There's also some early forecast talking about perhaps a wet Spring which could create planting complications. Keep in mind, we don't get an accurate U.S. corn acreage number from the USDA until the March 31st report.