Soybean bears have pushed the market hard to the downside the past several days. I wonder if it might be time for the bears to stop and catch their breath. Unfortunately, there's nothing in the nearby headlines that warrants a major change of motion or direction.
Technically, traders are watching the MAR18 contract to make certain prices can hold support above $9.50 per bushel. Fundamentally, there seems to be a few more reports and rumors circulating about the Brazilian crop being perhaps much larger than the USDA is currently forecasting. Thoughts are there are more acres planted than previously estimated and the weather is creating better yields in areas that may have struggled a bit last year.
Bulls still see weather as a concern in Argentina and gains in Brazil's production might ultimately be offset by a reduction in the Argentine crop. That's obviously going to take some time to play itself out, so the bears might be able to stay up to bat.
Chinese crush margins remain suspect, U.S. producers are talking about planting record soybean acres in 2018 and Brazil's production and export estimates remain extremely strong. As a producer, being an aggressive seller early has paid dividends. I continue to keep all hedges in place and remain patient.