Obviously it is an understatement to call Tuesday’s tragedy an extra ordinary event. One ramification of the events is the USDA Crop Report scheduled for release on Wednesday has been delayed until Friday September 14,2001 at 7:30 CDT.
How will this affect the markets? Literally, we do not know. But looking at other extraordinary events in the marketplace, you will usually see some type of knee jerk response, whether up or down. Many markets may be affected differently, such as energies versus grains.
The main issue is these typically run their course in about two weeks and sometimes sooner. Quite often the more intense or emotional the event, the more likely it is to send shock waves through the marketplace. Initially, we would expect energies to rally, as you already saw people panicking and filling their tanks the first night.
In grains, you may see specs holding long positions wanting to get out of them and this could put pressure on the grains. The U.S. dollar is likely to be a very strong "wild card." Couple this with the scheduled release of Friday’s USDA report, and this could be a very wild week before it is over in the markets.
The key for us is to hold our emotions in check and try to evaluate in the short term whether this is a fundamental long-term change in the market or just emotional knee jerk for the next two weeks.
You can e-mail Moe at [email protected]
Editors' note: Moe Russell, Soybean Digest Risk Management Editor, is president of Russell Consulting Group, a farm management agency in Panora, IA.
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