The concern I have is NOT with current demand, but demand moving forward with the long South American tail looming. As of right now most insiders believe the logistical problems in Brazil have setback export shipments by almost 1.0 million metric tons when compared to what they had shipped last year at this stage of the game. The kicker is they may end up harvesting an additional 15-20.0 million metric tons of soybeans when compared to last year. What does this mean?
It means they are going to be unloading soybeans to the rest of the world much longer than supplies would have traditionally allowed them to in the past. In fact there is talk they maybe exporting beans clear through the end of 2013 and into the early part of 2014. In other words just in time to start harvesting and shipping out their next crop. This leaves U.S. exporters with a very narrow window of opportunity to win over business. Keep in mind the Argentine soybean harvest continues to move right along, as well. Most sources think they are about 10-20% harvested at this time. Brazil is more like 60-70% harvested. Read more of my thoughts about the South American Crop and how it could affect U.S. crop prices moving forward in my report by clicking below.
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