USDA to Update 2013-2014 Forecasts



With Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply/demand update expected to show only minor adjustments in 2012-2013 estimates, the grain and soybean [2] trade will focus on the agency’s first monthly estimates for 2013-2014.

USDA has not updated its estimates for 2013-2014 since issuing preliminary forecasts at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

The trade is expecting USDA to lower its forecast for next year’s U.S. corn [3] carryout moderately from February, but still indicate a sharp increase in ending stocks versus this year due to larger production prospects.

USDA’s 2013-2014 soybean ending stocks estimate is expected to be down slightly from February, but still nearly double this year’s carryout on larger production. The wheat ending stocks forecast for 2013-2014 is seen up from February, but down about 10% from this year’s carryout on drought-reduced winter wheat production.

Trade estimates of the 2013-2014 U.S. corn carryout average 1.993 billion bushels in a range from 1.387 billion to 2.427 billion, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 21 analysts. That compares with USDA’s February forecast for a 2013-2014 carryout of 2.177 billion bushels. Expectations for the 2012-2013 corn carryout average 749 million bushels in a range from 684 million to 800 million compared with USDA’s April estimate of 757 million.

Pre-report expectations for the 2013-2014 U.S. soybean carryout average 236 million bushels in a range from 147 million to 325 million bushels compared with USDA’s February forecast of 250 million bushels. Expectations for the 2012-2013 soybean carryout average 123 million bushels, 2 million below USDA’s April estimate, in a range from 107 million to 130 million bushels.

Expectations for 2013-2014 U.S. wheat ending stocks average 658 million bushels in a range from 486 million to 800 million compared with USDA’s February projection of 639 million bushels. The trade consensus is that USDA will peg 2012-2013 wheat ending stocks at 733 million bushels, 2 million above its April estimate, with expectations ranging from 720 million to 747 million bushels.


Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.