Will corn and soybeans be rationed in 2013?

Will corn and soybeans be rationed in 2013?

According to University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good, the U.S. average corn [2] yield was below trend value for three consecutive years from 2010 through 2012 and the U.S. average soybean [3] yield was below trend value in both 2011 and 2012. The shortfall in corn yields resulted in declining year-ending stocks and higher prices in both the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 marketing years.

“The small crop of 2012 required rationing of consumption and resulted in record high prices for the 2012-2013 marketing year,” Good says. “Consumption during that marketing year is currently estimated at 11.215 billion bushels, 1.312 billion bushels (10.5%) less than consumption in the previous year.  Year-ending stocks are projected at 719 million bushels, only 6.4% of consumption during the year.

Good says that for soybeans, the shortfall in yields in 2011 resulted in higher prices and smaller year-ending stocks for the 2011-2012 marketing year than those of the previous year. The small crop of 2012 resulted in sharply higher prices, rationing of consumption, and a further draw down in year-ending stocks. Consumption for the year just ended is estimated at 3.094 billion bushels, 61 million (2%) less than during the previous year. Year-ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, only 4% of consumption during the year.

Read more about possible rationing of corn and soybeans this year from University of Illinois. [4]

 

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