soybean planting

Are all the bearish soybean cards out of the deck?

The future may hold more soybean acreage planted here in the United States.

Soybean bulls have been backpedaling the past several sessions as more weather related risk comes out of the South American market as their harvest moves past 50%.

Insiders are also talking about more acres being planted here in the U.S. I should note that Informa raised their U.S. planted soybean acreage estimate yesterday form 88.5 to 88.7 million. As most of you know, I'm in total agreement and thinking perhaps the planted soybean planted acreage estimate eventually works itself closer to 90 million.

There's not a lot fresh or new news in today's headlines, I could argue both sides of the Chinese demand story, the weather forecast has offered up little change or surprise as of late, the South American crop is much larger than last year, U.S. producers are poised to plant the largest crop in our nations history, global production is forecast to be record setting...

Bottom-line, it's tough to get bullish based on any of the nearby fundamentals. I should also note that the macro bulls who had been pushing the trade higher on a "re-faltionary" Trump Trade type mindset have paused ahead of the Fed meeting and greater uncertainty surrounding how quickly "political change" will fly through Washington.

Looking to tomorrow, traders will be eager to see the monthly NOPA crush data. From what I understand most in the trade are looking for a number somewhere between 145 and 150 million bushels of soybeans crushed in February.

For reference, in February of last year we crushed just over an estimated 146 million bushels. In January of this year we crushed just north of 160 million bushels.  

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