Soybean bulls continue to talk about strong demand and variable yields from the U.S. harvest. Thoughts are the USDA may continue to tick back their current yield forecast and eventually tighten the domestic soybean balance sheet.
Bears aren't disputing the possibility but still see no reason to add risk-premium to the current price, thinking both domestic and global supplies will remain more than ample. Technical, the NOV17contract has broken nearby support, falling below the 200-Day Moving Average at around $9.75 per bushel. Keep in mind, NOV17 option expiration for soybeans, meal, and oil is this Friday, October 27th. First Notice day for NOV17 futures is next Tuesday, October 31. This could certainly create a bit more movement in the market.
Globally, the bears are talking about EU soybean imports being down -15% to -20% this year. Bulls, however, continue to talk about possible weather complications inside South America. There's talk that some important areas in Brazil may remain dry and some areas in Argentina too wet.
I'm also keeping an eye on rumors and talk that Argentine government officials might reduce their export tax on soybeans. Obviously, a reduction in their export tax would put more soybeans in the global supply chain. Staying with my previous thoughts that we are rangebound for the time being, between $9.20 and $10.20 per bushel.