USDA numbers were released mostly as expected; no changes or adjustments to our marketing strategies. Corn data is somewhat as expected, with the bulls looking for slightly larger increases in demand. The corn market is down slightly on the day. Soybeans are holding their gains on across the board bullish data delivered by the USDA. I read an interesting fact from Reuters this morning that soybeans are in the midst of posting their ninth consecutive weekly gain, the longest such streak since 1973.
From my perspective the trade will continue to keep a close eye on the weather forecasts, the direction of the U.S. dollar and now the upcoming end of June acreage report and quarterly stocks update. Here are a few highlights from today's updated USDA data. Have a great weekend!
U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are reduced by 95 million bushels as a 100-million-bushel increase in the corn export forecast more than offsets a slightly higher import projection. The U.S. corn export projection for 2016/17 is raised 50 million bushels as U.S. supplies are expected to remain more competitive in 2016/17 with less production for Brazil.
Corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 2.008 billion bushels, down 145 million from last month. Global corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected 1.9 million tons lower as the reduction for the United States more than offsets higher foreign stocks. My next cash-sale target is still up between $4.45 and $4.55 per bushel.
- U.S. Production reported "unchanged" at a record 14.430 billion bushels
- Brazil corn production for 2015/16 is aggressively lowered by 3.5 million tons to 77.5 million, as an early end to the rainy season in west-central Brazil has reduced yields for second-crop corn.
- Brazil Exports lowered by 3.5 MMTs down to 22.5 MMTs
- Mexico corn production is raised 1.0 million tons for 2015/16
- Season-average farm price for U.S. corn is raised for both 2015/16 and 2016/17. The 2015/16 price is forecast up 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint with a range of $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel. The 2016/17 price is projected 15 cents per bushel higher at the midpoint with a range of $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.
Soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 370 million bushels, down 30 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are reduced 45 million bushels to 260 million on lower beginning stocks and increased exports. With lower global soybean beginning stocks and production, and a negligible change to crush, global stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 66.3 million tons, down 1.9 million from last month. My next new-crop cash sale target is still up near $12 per bushel. I'm also keeping a close eye on the NOV17 contract, which traded north of $10.20 per bushel this afternoon.
- U.S. Soybean Crush for 2015/16 is raised by 10 million bushels to 1,890 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports.
- U.S. Soybean Exports for 2015/16 are projected at 1,760 million bushels, up 20 million with reduced soybean production and exports for Brazil and Uruguay.
- Season-average farm price for 2016/17 soybeans is forecast at $8.75 to $10.25 per bushel, up 40 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $320 to $360 per short ton, up $20 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound.
- Brazil soybean production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 97.0 million
- Brazil soybean exports lowered to 58.75 from 59.5
- Argentine production unchanged.