Corn bears are pointing to what appears to be a mild forecasts for the U.S. winter. On the other hand, the bulls are talking about how lack of snowfall and moisture this winter could perhaps leave several key growing regions begging for water into early-spring planting.
As a producer, we have to hope winter weather headlines provide some temporary relief and short-covering type rally. There's just not a lot on the demand side of the equation that's going to excite the bulls. Ethanol margins remain suspect, corn exports are facing stiff competition from South America and Ukraine, and feed usage being more heavily questioned.
Unfortunately, with ample global supply, especially inside China, it's hard to imagine nearby corn prices breaking out of their current trading range of between $3.60 and $4.10 per bushel. I'm also worried that some areas are going to start seeing their basis premium more quickly erode.
Make certain you are doing your homework and taking full-advantage of the steep jump in basis. This is not the environment to be pressing your luck and trying to squeeze those extra few pennies.