Soybeans continue their mysterious ways and are once again trading higher. Technical traders seem to believe the JAN15 contract has nearby support in the $9.95-10.00 range, while nearby resistance now appears to be in the $10.60-10.75 range. Obviously, the South American weather remains a wild card, but from everything I've been hearing, the conditions (moisture) have certainly improved. Keep in mind however, this doesn't change the fact planting has been backed up in several key Brazilian locations and will place more (late-season) demand on U.S. exporters.
In addition to the potential increase in U.S. exports (1-2MMTs), there is also talk that U.S. domestic demand may need to be raised higher. Net-net we now have thoughts that demand is moving higher and increasing questions being raised about U.S. logistics. As for U.S. production, the harvest should move closer to 90% complete by next week and there will remain little doubt in regards to supply. I just think the trade is already assuming an additional jump in yield, closer to 48 or 49 bushels per acre, so it doesn't seem as if we are trading production headlines any longer.
There does however continue to be talk of quality concerns in U.S. soybeans. Meaning, there might be a bit of a protein shortfall because of the heavy moisture (creating more oil than meal). An even bigger question then seems to be if, where, and when will we be importing meal from South America? I continue to hear rumors there might be a few cargoes currently headed to the southeastern part of the U.S., but I still have no confirmation.
As a producer I continue to believe "best-of-practice" is to reduce additional risk on the rally. I now have 100% of our 2014 production priced and will be exclusively looking for ways to improve my basis levels or re-own existing sales in the weeks ahead. This is when we have to remember it's ALL about EXECUTION. All of your reading, studying of the markets, planning and strategizing is for not if you can't execute.
Execute (ex·e·cute): carry out or put into effect (plan, order, or course of action).
I tell my kids all the time, "it's all about execution." I've heard many famous coaches and players say, "our plan was perfect...but we simply failed to execute." Remember, Google didn’t invent search; Facebook didn’t invent social networking; and Apple didn’t invent the portable music player, they simple took these concepts improved the process, then executed better than everyone else. Here are a few more things I've learned about the subject:
- Ideas are a dime a dozen, execution is everything. Its tiring to hear people say they had a great "idea." I tell my kids, everybody has great ideas, but it takes a special person to follow through, commit and execute. In fact, often times there are many people with the same great idea, but generally only one takes action and executes.
- "Show me." I'm from the state of Missouri. In other words, talk is cheap. Success is clearly defined by those who can implement their plans. I struggle with this myself. I can't stick to a diet plan to save my life. I've had several successful plans. Obviously it is extremely poor execution.
- Execution is hard work and very few want to do the heavy lifting. Too many people want others to do the hard work for them. They revel in their seats as they pontificate about the great things that can be achieved with their ideas or second-hand arm chair quarterbacking.
- Passion is insanely important. I've always told the kids that passion is one of the most important secrets of life. Even if we follow all our desires and our passions, we still need to have deep passion with incredible follow-through to execute. I know it's not easy, but we have to execute!