Soybean bulls are excited about a couple of circumstances: obviously the old-crop equation is still incredibly difficult to solve, and with excessive rain the past few days slowing the wheat harvest (57% vs. 78% last year at this time), delays in planting double-crop soybeans behind wheat is becoming more of a reality, hence fewer bean acres going in the ground. From where I sit, until the old-crop equation is solved, which looks to be several weeks away, this is going to remain an extremely volatile and wild tone to this market. Meaning dangerous to the upside on occasions. Spec's should remain very cautious, keeping positions very small and manageable.
Before you get overly excited about new-crop soybeans just keep in mind the crop is now rated 27% higher in the good/excellent category than last year. I should also point out that just 7% of this years crop is rated very poor/poor vs. 27% of the crop last year at this time. Take note that six states generally make up around 60% of our nations soybean production, the percentage of these states' soybean crop currently rated good/excellent are: MN 63%; IA 66%; IL 73%; OH 74%; IN 75%; NE 76%.