Soybean traders are also heavily debating South American weather and total new-crop production estimates. As we sit here today it seems like the USDA is too conservative with their current Brazilian estimate and may eventually need to bump that number higher by +3.0 to +5.0 MMTs.
Bottom-line, the South American weather has improved and production estimates are again working themselves higher, not lower. Switching gears to here in the U.S., I was a bit surprised yesterday by the USDA's longer-term projections that used just 85.5 million planted soybean acres in 2017. Keep in mind that's just +2.8 million planted acres more than last year and just +2.2 million more than what was planted in 2015.
I really think the planted soybean number is going to be somewhere between 87 and 90 million acres depending on weather. Fundamentally very little changed. Somewhat worrisome however is the fact U.S. exports were better than most in the trade were anticipating yesterday yet there was a significant selloff in price. In fact some technical damage was inflicted on the charts and bringing into question longer-term direction.
As most experienced traders will tell you, it's never good to see a market swallow bullish news and then react negatively. As a producer we've made some good sales on the recent rally and are on the sideline in a "wait-and-see" holding pattern. As a spec I still like the thought of being a longer-term bull on a more significant break in price.
I personally believe there is going to be another run at the most recent highs, it might just take a few weeks to play itself out. Staying patient!
USDA Long-Term Projection Highlights for Soybeans (Full Report HERE)