soy11

Global trade and woes contribute to soybean price rebound

A truckers strike and crop quality in South America is on the Bull's radar.

Soybean bulls have enjoyed a nice rebound in price. Talk of the U.S. and China being more on the same page regarding trade has helped ease some nearby uncertainties. Bulls are also pointing towards a recent widespread trucker strike in Brazil; Quality problems with the Argentine crop, which their estimate still needs to be lowered by the USDA.

There is also further confirmation of strong U.S. demand, with the NOPA crush report showing April at a strong level just over 161 million bushels, up about 16% from last year. Bears continue to point to a record crop in Brazil being harvested and producers here in the U.S. possibly planting more soybean acres. Bears are also pointing to a U.S crop that's off to a good start.

Planting has already reached +56% complete vs. 35% last year and a 5-year average of 44% by this date. States running the furthest behind schedule include: SD -20% behind schedule; MI -10%; MN-8%; ND -7%; WI-2%. States running the furthest ahead of schedule include: IL +39% ahead of schedule; IN +35%; MO +30%; KS +26%; AR +24%; TN +19%; NE +17%; OH, MS, LA & KY +13%; IA & NC +7%.

I should note, the USDA also reported that 26% of the U.S crop is considered "emerged" vs. the 5-year average of just 15%. 

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