Soybean prices have me a bit more nervous than corn and wheat. Bears are focused on a new-crop ending stock number pushing towards 700 million bushels. Talk is U.S. yield ends up somewhere between 49.5 and 52.0 bushels per acre, obviously depending on finishing weather the next few weeks.
It's tough to argue those numbers from our current crop-conditions. It's also tough to read or forecast trade relations with the Chinese. Will the Chinese ultimately bite the bullet and buy U.S. soybeans in quantity or somehow reduce soy demand by some significant margin?
As a producer, I want to believe the talk and rhetoric that eventually China has to come back to the U.S. for supply, the numbers simply don't add up. But at the same time, I know from experience things can and do change, especially those things acted upon by a powerful outside source, such as the Chinese government.
Hence, even though I full understand the reason to be a fundamental bull, I also recognize that "change" can often turn on a dime and go in a direction you had never imagined, both good and bad. Meaning I simply don't know what the soybean world will look like once we pop back out on the other side of trade negotiations with the Chinese.
Obviously, I'm wanting to keep a positive attitude about the outcome, but at the same time I'm realist, understanding it's a possible "wild-card". I have friends who have been professional traders for years, some think soybean prices could tumble to sub-$8.00 on a negative set of political headlines, at the same time some think we could still see prices back north of $10.50 before year-end.
As a spec, I have no current positions open heading into the report. I would entertain being a buyer if we were to catch a significant break. As a producer, I'm in no hurry to reduce additional risk in this time window. I want to stay patient and hopefully catch a wave of bullish headlines...