Corn production is forecast at 13.6 billion bushels, down 4% from last year's record production and down less than 1% from the August forecast. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 167.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from the August forecast and down 3.5 bushels from 2014. If realized, this will be the second highest yield and third largest production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.1 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but down 2% from 2014.
U.S. corn usage for 2015/16 is lowered 20 million bushels, but usage is expected to be record high and just above the level projected for 2014/15. Feed and residual use for 2015/16 is expected 25 million bushels lower with the smaller crop. FSI use is projected 5 million bushels higher on an increase in expected use for sweeteners consistent with this month’s upward revision to that usage category for 2014/15. Despite higher projected global import demand, projected corn exports for 2015/16 are unchanged with tighter supplies. U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 121 million bushels lower and 140 million bushels below this month’s lowered 2014/15 carryout projection. The 2015/16 season-average corn price received by producers is projected 10¢ higher on both ends to $3.45-4.05 per bushel.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.94 billion bushels, up slightly from August but down 1% from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel from last month but down 0.7 bushel from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.5 million acres, unchanged from August but up less than 1 percent from 2014.
Changes for 2014/15 include higher exports and crush, resulting in reduced ending stocks. Exports are increased 10 million to a record 1,835 million bushels based on reported trade through July and indications from August export inspections. Crush is increased 25 million bushels to 1,870 million on increased soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Ending stocks are projected at 210 million bushels, down 30 million.
The 2015/16 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.40-9.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, down 2¢ on both ends of the range.