U.S. feed grain supply and use projections for 2012-2013 are unchanged this month, but price outlooks for corn are lowered based on prices reported to date. The season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20¢ at the midpoint and the projected range is narrowed to $6.80-8/bu. Prices received by farmers through October remained well below cash market bids and this year’s early corn harvest appears to have boosted early season marketing placing further downward pressure on the outlook for the season-average price.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-2013 are projected 7.0 million tons higher mostly reflecting a larger reported corn crop for China. Beginning coarse grain stocks for 2012-2013 are lowered1.0 million tons in part reflecting higher 2011-2012 corn exports for Argentina. Global 2012-2013 corn production is raised 9.4 million tons with China corn output up 8.0 million tons based on recent estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Strong price incentives to expand corn plantings and favorable summer rainfall, particularly in the northeast provinces, support increases in area and yields raising them to new records. Corn production for Canada is raised 1.5 million tons this month to a new record on higher yields and a record area as reported by Statistics Canada. Russia corn production is raised 1.0 million tons, also a new record. Corn production is increased for North Korea and Chile, up 0.4 million and 0.3 million tons, respectively. Offsetting these increases are reductions for Argentina, Moldova and Ukraine corn, down 0.5 million tons each, with lower expected area for Argentina, lower area and yields for Moldova and lower yields for Ukraine. Belarus corn production is also lowered 0.2 million tons.
Global 2012-2013 coarse grain trade is increased mostly on higher expected corn imports and exports. Corn imports are raised 1.5 million tons for EU-27. Corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Russia. Increases in local marketing year 2011-2012 exports for Argentina, Paraguay and South Africa support higher 2012-2013 consumption this month for Northern Hemisphere countries. Global corn consumption for 2012-2013 is raised 8.7 million tons mostly with increases of 6.0 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, for China and EU-27 corn feeding. Corn feed and residual use is also raised for Canada and Russia, but lowered for Argentina, Ukraine and Moldova. Corn food, seed and industrial use is raised 2.0 million tons for China, also boosting global corn consumption. World corn ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected 0.4 million tons lower, mostly on reductions in Argentina, Colombia and Ukraine. Small increases in a number of countries, including Canada, are partly offsetting.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 91.3 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.570 billion due to strong foreign demand for soybean products. Soybean oil production is raised 460 million pounds on the increased crush and on a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil exports are projected at 1.8 billion pounds, up sharply from 1.2 billion last month on exceptionally strong November sales of just over 700 million pounds to several markets including China, Mexico and undeclared destinations. Soybean meal exports are raised 0.3 million short tons to 8.2 million on strong sales to EU-27, Egypt and several Asian markets including the Philippines and South Korea. Soybean meal domestic use is reduced 0.1 million short tons to 29.4 million in line with current meat production forecasts. With soybean exports unchanged at 1.345 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected at 130 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and products are all projected lower this month. The U.S. season- average soybean price range for 2012-2013 is projected at $13.55-15.55/bu., down 35¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $440-470/short ton, down $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 49-53¢/lb., down 2¢ on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 463 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases projected for soybeans, cottonseed and sunflowerseed only partly offset by reductions for rapeseed and peanuts. Global soybean production is projected at 267.7 million tons, up 0.1 million. Increased production for Canada is mostly offset by lower projections for EU-27 and Paraguay. Lower soybean production for Paraguay reflects reduced yields in line with historical production and yield revisions.
Global oilseed trade for 2012-2013 is projected at 115.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from Canada and increased peanut exports from India account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 66.9 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month reflecting higher rapeseed stocks in EU-27 and Australia.