Corn+Soybean Digest

USDA Cuts U.S. Soy, Wheat Stocks

On Tuesday morning, USDA lowered its estimates of 2007-2008 U.S ending stocks for soybeans and wheat by more than the trade expected, while leaving its corn carryout estimate unchanged from February.

The U.S. carryout estimates should be supportive for wheat and soybean prices, although USDA did raise projected world stocks for both commodities.

USDA cut projected U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 140 million, compared with trade estimates averaging 153 million bushels in a range from 130 to 160 million bushels.

The entire cut in soybean ending stocks was due to a strong U.S. export pace as USDA boosted projected exports to 1.025 billion from 1.005 billion.

USDA trimmed projected U.S. wheat ending stocks by another 30 million bushels to 242 million, compared with trade estimates averaging 263 million bushels in a range from 242 to 272 million.

Most of the cut in projected wheat stocks was due to strong export demand as USDA raised expected U.S. wheat exports to 1.225 billion bushels from 1.200 billion.

Projected domestic food use of wheat was also raised by 5 million bushels to 950 million bushels.

Projected U.S. corn ending stocks were left unchanged at 1.438 billion bushels against trade estimates averaging 1.435 billion bushels in a range from 1.388 to 1.488 billion.

While USDA lowered its expectations for U.S. soybean stocks, its projection of 2007-2008 world ending stocks rose to 47.44 million metric tons from a previous estimate of 45.82 million tons.

Much of the revision was due to a 1.6-million-ton upward revision in Argentina’s 2006-2007 ending stocks.

Brazil’s expected 2007-2008 soy crop was also raised by 500,000 tons to 61 million tons, boosting its projected stocks.

USDA’s projection of world wheat ending stocks also rose slightly to 110.4 million metric tons from 109.7 million, despite its lower expectations for U.S. stocks.

Projected Argentine wheat exports were lowered by 500,000 metric tons because of that country’s extended suspension of export registrations. India’s projected stocks were raised by 920,000 tons.

USDA revised its projection of world corn ending stocks upward to 104 million metric tons from 101.9 million tons.

Much of the upward revision in world stocks was due to a 1.5-million-ton increase in projected Brazilian corn stocks.

China’s corn stocks were also revised upward by 500,000 tons. USDA left its official estimate of China’s 2007-2008 corn crop at 145 million tons, even though the U.S. agricultural attaché in China cut his crop estimate to 137 million tons from 143 million.

Editor’s note: Richard Brock, The Corn And Soybean Digest's Marketing Editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

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